A REFUTATION OF ROBERT D. KAPLAN’S THESIS, AS PROPOSED IN THE
1994 ARTICLE “THE COMING ANARCHY,” USING THE ARGUMENT THAT
HIS EXTRAPOLATIONS OF THE EVENTS IN WEST AFRICA BEING AN
INDICATOR OF THE FUTURE STATE OF THE WORLD ARE ERRONEOUSClick
here to download the complete Thesis in PDF format.
ABSTRACT
In 1994, Robert D. Kaplan published an article in the Atlantic Monthly entitled
“The Coming Anarchy.” Using exemplar nations from West Africa to support his
prophecy, Kaplan’s thesis in this article is, in part, that by 2050 environmental
changes, such as global warming induced flooding, salinization, desertification,
erosion and topsoil loss, as well as man-made deforestation and pollution will cause
scarcities of natural resources such as arable land and potable water. This resource
scarcity, coupled with destabilizing urban poverty and overpopulation, will exacerbate
ethnic conflicts and cause mass migration of individuals, which in turn will further
increase conflict, crime, and the proliferation of disease. All of these reactions to
overpopulation and environmentally induced conflict, crime, and migration will,
according to Kaplan, ultimately lead to weakened central governments, the
empowerment of private armies and security firms, the obsolescence of current
political borders, and the creation of a global anarchy where crime and war are
virtually indistinguishable.
However, because Kaplan does not provide adequate sources for the information
communicated in his article, nor adequately defends his conclusions, many readers of
“The Coming Anarchy” may be misled into a reaction by the article because it may
contain factual errors. The research that is presented here is intended to discredit the
thesis of “The Coming Anarchy” by refuting Kaplan’s global apocalyptic message
and, so not to dismiss the real hardships in West Africa, to simultaneously use
Kaplan’s work as a vehicle to examine the very real anarchy that does indeed threaten
the region of West Africa.